2026 Simbi Indasitiri Outlook
Tichifunga nezvegwara remitemo, kudiwa kwemusika, uye nharaunda yepasirese, indasitiri yesimbi yeChina ichapinda muchikamu chitsva chekugadzirisa zvimiro uye kudzoreredza zvine mwero muna 2026, pasi pedingindira guru re "kudzora kugadzirwa nekuvandudza mhando." Basa guru reindastiri nderekuchinja kubva pakutsvaga kuwedzera chiyero kusvika pakuwana "kunatsiridza kwemhando yepamusoro uye kukura kwehuwandu." Iwo machati ari pazasi anopfupikisa madhiraivha akakosha uye matambudziko makuru eindasitiri yesimbi muna 2026, achikubatsira nekukasira kubata mufananidzo wakazara weindasitiri.
Supply and Demand Structure
Supply Side:Zvichikanganiswa nebumbiro remitemo, zvirambidzo zvezvakatipoteredza, uye kuzvibata kweindasitiri-, kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kunotarisirwa kuramba kuchidzikira. Masangano akawanda anofanotaura kuti kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kukora muna 2026 kuchange kuri pakati pe931 miriyoni ne960 miriyoni yematani, pagore-pa-kuderera kwe1.25% kusvika 3.1%. Zvisungo zvakasimba zvekutsiva masimba, zvirambidzo zvekugadzirwa kwekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza, uye zviito zve "anti{10}}innovation" zvinofambisa kubuda kwechinyakare chekugadzira, uye indasitiri inotarisirwa kuwedzera.
Demand Side:Huwandu hwese huri pasi pekumanikidzwa, asi kusiyanisa kwemaitiro kwakakosha. Kudiwa kwesimbi muchikamu chekutengesa kunoramba kuchiderera, asi kuderera kuri kuderera; kudiwa kwesimbi muzvivakoti kunoramba kwakasimba; uye kudiwa kwesimbi mukugadzira kunochengetedza kukura, kuva chinhu chinokosha chekudiwa. Kudiwa kwesimbi kwese muna 2026 kunotarisirwa kunge kuri matani 800 miriyoni, pagore-pa-kuderera kwe 1%, uye chikamu chekudiwa kwesimbi mukugadzira chichiwedzera.
Price Trends Mitengo yeSimbi inotarisirwa kuchinjika zvakanyanya pazasi, nekuchinja kudiki kumusoro mumutengo wakazara. Mitengo mikuru yekondirakiti yerebar uye inopisa-coil yakakungurutswa inotarisirwa kutengeserana pakati pe2950-3400 yuan/ton ne3050-3550 yuan/ton, zvichitevedzana. Kuchinja kwemitengo kuchapesvedzerwa nekupihwa uye kudiwa kwechiyero, kugadziridzwa kwepolicy, shanduko yemitengo, uye nharaunda yekunze. Kuchenjerera kunofanira kubhadharwa kune kukurumidza kwekuita hurongwa uye simba rekuda kupora.
Mari uye Purofiti
Nezvemitengo yezvigadzirwa, mitengo yesimbi inotarisirwa kudzikira, mitengo yemarasha ekukoka inotarisirwa kuchinjika mukati mechikamu, uye mitengo yesimbi yezvikara inotarisirwa kuramba yakasimba. Pakazara, mutengo patani yesimbi unotarisirwa kudzikira, asi mutengo wezvakatipoteredza uri kukwira. Indasitiri pundutso inotarisirwa kupora, asi musiyano wakakura unotarisirwa. Mabhizinesi ane pundutso dzakasimba uye-akagadziridzwa epamusoro-mapotfolio echigadzirwa achanyanya kukwikwidza, neindasitiri inowana purofiti yakawanda patani imwe chete yesimbi inotarisirwa kuramba iri muchikamu che150-200 yuan.
Policy uye Kunze Kwakatipoteredza
Domestic Policy:Hurumende icharamba ichiisa mutemo wezvemari unoshanda uye mutemo wemari wakarembera, wakanangana ne "kudzikamisa kukura nekudzivirira shanduko," uye kusimudzira budiriro yemhando yepamusoro-yeindasitiri kuburikidza nematanho akadai sekugona uye kutonga kwezvinobuda, hunyanzvi hweruzivo, uye shanduko yegirinhi. Ichangobva kuwedzerwa-yechinangwa bond quota inogona kusvika 4.8 trillion yuan, ichipa rubatsiro rwemari kune zvivakwa nezvimwe. Kudiwa kweSimbi kubva kumaindasitiri akadai semichina, mota (kunyanya mota nyowani dzesimba), kuvaka ngarava, uye midziyo yemumba zvicharamba zvakatsiga, zvichibatsira kuzadza gaka mukudiwa kwekuvaka. Makiyi Simba -2-3. Chikamu chesimbi chinoshandiswa mukugadzira chasvika makumi mashanu muzana uye chicharamba chichikwira -3.
International Trade:Kuwedzera kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana uye kuisirwa zviri pamutemo kweEU kabhoni tariffs kwaisa mutengo wekumanikidza kuChina simbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Zvichakadaro, zvirambidzo zvekutengeserana zvakatemwa nenyika dzakaita seIndia neTurkey zvichakanganisawo kutengesa kunze kwenyika. Zvakadaro, simbi yekuChina inoramba iine makwikwi pamusika wepasi rose, uye chimiro chekutengesera kunze chichashanduka kuenda kune-zvigadzirwa zvekupedzisira. World Steel Association inofanotaura kuti kudiwa kwesimbi pasi rose kuchakura zvine mwero ne1.3% muna 2026.
Indasitiri Development Trends
Yakawedzera Green Transition:Pasi pechinangwa chepamusoro pekabhoni uye kusarerekera kwekabhoni, kugadzirwa kwegirinhi nepasi{{0}kabhoni muindasitiri yesimbi kwave kusingadzivisiki. Kushandiswa kwemichina yakaita seyekupedzisira-low emission retrofitting uye hydrogen metallurgy kuchakurumidza, zvichiwedzera mutengo wezvakatipoteredza uye kugadzira musika wegirinhi wehunyanzvi.
Kugadzirwa kwepamusoro-uye nehungwaru:Kuvandudza muindasitiri yekugadzira zvinhu kuchawedzera kudiwa kwepamusoro-kushanda, kukwirira{1}}kukosha-kwesimbi yakawedzerwa. Mabhizinesi achawedzera mari yeR&D, achifambisa budiriro yechigadzirwa kusvika kune yakakwirira-kumagumo uye akasiyana zvigadzirwa. Panguva imwe chete, shanduko yedhijitari ichava nzira yakakosha yekuvandudza kugona uye kuderedza mitengo.
Kukurumidzirwa kwekubatanidza nekutenga: Pasi pehutungamiri hwe-mitemo yeshanduko nematanho ekutonga, makambani makuru anotarisirwa kubatanidza diki nepakati-hukuru hwekugadzira, kuwedzera kutariswa kweindasitiri uye simba rekutaurirana, kuumba chimiro cheindasitiri "yemakambani anotungamira anotonga, ane rutsigiro rwakasiyana kubva kumabhizinesi madiki neari pakati-."
Mhedziso
Muna 2026, indasitiri yesimbi ichaonekana neyakakura modhi yekukura uye kupinda muchikamu chitsva chinoratidzirwa ne "simba rekutonga, optimization chimiro, kusimudzira kukosha, uye kusimudzira girinhi." Kumabhizinesi, kiyi yekubudirira iri mu: mukati, kunyatsotevera kutonga kwemasimba enyika uye mitemo yezvakatipoteredza, kuwedzera R&D investimendi muzvigadzirwa zvepamusoro-, uye kugamuchira shanduko yedhijitari uye nehungwaru; kunze, kunyatsosandura nzira dzekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika, kubva pa "makwikwi emitengo" kuenda ku "value output," tichitarisa pamisika mitsva nepamusoro-zvinogadzirwa zvakasvibirira, uye kudzikisira njodzi dzekunze kuburikidza nemaitiro akasiyana siyana uye anoenderana.
Pakazara, muna 2026, indasitiri yesimbi ichange iri muchikamu chekushaikwa kushaya simba-kudiwa kwechiyero, paine mitemo yemitemo uye kuchenesa misika kuripo. Indasitiri yacho yese icharatidza hunhu hwe "yakagadzika asi ichidzikira yakazara kuburitsa, zvimiro optimization uye kusimudzira, uye shoma purofiti kudzoreredza." Mabhizinesi anofanirwa kutarisa nezvekudzora mutengo, kusimudzira zvigadzirwa, uye shanduko yegirinhi kuti zvishande nemamiriro ezvinhu akaoma uye anogara-achichinja musika.
